The president-elect will face big problems, threats

It’ll be a short honeymoon. The next U.S. president will face high expectations (which may be impossible to fulfill), a recessionary economy and huge budget deficits. And that’s just domestically. Mike McConnell, the director of national intelligence, gave a speech this week that lays out the broader threats. As The Washington Post reported:

The next U.S. president will govern in an era of increasing international instability, including a heightened risk of terrorist attacks in the near future, long-term prospects of regional conflicts and diminished U.S. dominance across the globe, the nation’s top intelligence officer said Thursday.

Competition for energy, water and food will drive conflicts between nations to a degree not seen in decades, and climate change and global economic upheaval will amplify the effects, [McConnell said].

“After the new president-elect’s excitement subsides after winning the election, it is going to be dampened somewhat when he begins to focus on the realities of the myriad of changes and challenges,” he said.

Of course, besides the predictable conflicts and threats, “there is always surprise,” McConnell said. (Futurists call ’em wild cards.)

Measuring innovation: The top five R&D metrics

The following are the top five R&D metrics used by industry (2008):

1. R&D spending as a percentage of sales (77%)
2. Total patents filed/pending/awarded/rejected (61%)
3. Total R&D headcount (59%)
4. Current-year percentage sales due to new products released in the past six years (56%)
5. Number of new products released (53%)

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Source: Goldense Group Inc.’s 2008 Product Development Metrics Survey
Base: 200 companies that design and develop new products
Discovered via ThomasNet’s Industrial Market Trends

‘The Era of Angry Populism has only just begun’

Robert Reich — author, professor and former U.S. secretary of labor — describes the mood of the American populace tonight, shortly before the U.S. Senate vote on the so-called financial bailout bill. His conclusion: “angry populism is about to explode.”

This mood will last longer than one night or one week; it will carry over into the November elections and well into the first year of the next White House administration.

Excerpts from Reich’s blog post:

While more Americans are coming around to “supporting” the bailout bill, the vast majority still hate the idea of bailing out Wall Street. They’re for the bailout bill now only because they fear that a failure to pass it will have worse consequences — drying up credit at a time when Main Street is struggling. But make no mistake: America is mad as hell. They resent what they perceive as extortion by the Masters of the Universe.

Angry populism has always been a potent force in American politics. And now, with wages dropping, jobs insecure, fuel and food and health-insurance costs soaring, and millions of homes in jeopardy — and what’s perceived to be a massive taxpayer bailout of some of the richest people in the land — angry populism is about to explode.

The larger economic outlook is not encouraging. All signs point to the economy worsening, bailout or no bailout. Unemployment will continue to rise. Median earnings will continue to drop, adjusted for inflation. More Americans will lose their health insurance.

The Era of Angry Populism has only just begun.

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Related:
The resurgence of anti-business populism; more regulation ahead

Some corporate boards see benefits of scenario planning

A few corporate boards are using scenario planning to better prepare for crises. For example, Reynolds American Inc. held a mock board meeting in July that simulated the death of the chairman and CEO in a plane crash.

During the simulation, the HR chief made a presentation about possible successors, as well as the need to communicate with the press, regulators, investors and employees. The two-hour simulation exposed gaps in Reynolds’ emergency-succession plan. The board found it easier to air such issues “without the intense emotion of facing the [actual] loss of a CEO,” board member Betsy Atkins says. “We ended up feeling better prepared.”

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Source: “Anticipating Corporate Crises,” The Wall Street Journal, 23 September 2008

Are we asking the right questions?

Futurists working with clients may be tempted to play the role aggressively, with an in-your-face style pushing bold new ideas and transformations. That may be appropriate in some situations, but futurist John Mahaffie says that sometimes it’s better to play a low-key (but persistent) role to make sure the right questions are being asked.

In a recent blog post, Mahaffie identified some of the questions that ought to be asked in a client engagement:

• Are we talking about the right thing?
• Have we looked outside the usual boundaries?
• Are the right people in the room to discuss this?
• Are we overly influenced by our past interests and sunk investments?
• Are we accounting for multiple perspectives?
• Are we really looking at the future — like exploring the possibilities and aspirations out to the year 2018 or 2023 — or are we just catching up with the unfinished business of today?

These are just a few of the questions Mahaffie suggests (I picked my favorites, and did some paraphrasing). I encourage you to read the whole post.

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Related:
The difference between futurists and regular consultants