‘Not on my street!’ The problem with GPS routing efficiency

GPS navigation devices for vehicles are all the rage, but (pursuant to the Law of Unintended Consequences) they’re also causing problems for residential and rural neighborhoods that would like to keep traffic to a minimum. The problem is really that the GPS devices are too efficient. They find the shortest route between Point A and Point B — even if that happens to send the gas-guzzling vehicle hurtling through a residential or rural area where residents would rather not have so much zoomingly efficient traffic.

Update: The Wall Street Journal has a story on this today, 18 March 2008: “Steered Wrong: Drivers Trust GPS Even to a Fault: Blind Faith in Devices Trumps Common Sense; A Road to Nowhere.”

A Dutch research report says the best GPS device is one that smartly routes the driver around residential areas rather than through them. GPS devices that simply pick the shortest routes through residential neighborhoods are labeled “kid killers.” Ouch.

Vinnie Mirchandani adds: “As GPS units mesh with social networks and become more ‘savvy’ about traffic jams and construction sites, expect more drivers to be re-routed even more through residential paths.” He notes this could raise some interesting public policy issues.

Meanwhile, small British villages wish they could be taken off the GPS route maps. As The New York Times recently put it: “Wedmore, like many British villages, has been overrun by trucks following routes set by GPS navigation devices that do not take into account their narrow roads and sharp corners.”

But trucks and tractor-trailers come here all the time, as they do in similarly inappropriate spots across Britain, directed by GPS navigation devices, which fail to appreciate that the shortest route is not always the best route.

“They have no idea where they are,” said Wayne Hahn, a local store owner who watches a daily parade of vehicles come to grief — hitting fences, shearing mirrors from cars and becoming stuck at the bottom of Wedmore’s lone hill. Once, he saw an enormous tractor-trailer speeding by, unaware that in its wake it was dragging a passenger car, complete with distraught passenger.

With villagers at their wits’ end, John Sanderson, chairman of the parish council, has proposed a seemingly simple remedy: getting the route through Wedmore removed from the GPS navigation systems used by large vehicles.

“We’d like them to have appropriate systems that would show some routes weren’t suitable for HGVs,” Sanderson said, using shorthand for heavy goods vehicle.

Some communities have begun putting up signs warning drivers to ignore their GPS devices on rural roads. But signs seem to be less and less effective as people increasingly rely more on GPS systems and less on maps, common sense or their own eyes.

The resurgence of anti-business populism; more regulation ahead

We’ve already seen the U.S. presidential candidates embrace populist, anti-corporate appeals. Mike Huckabee, a Republican, has taken whacks at Wall Street. John Edwards, a Democrat, lays out his “stop corporate abuses” manifesto here. There’s a reason they do this: It really resonates with the public, at a time of globalization, job insecurity, outsourcing, mass layoffs, a looming recession, corporate scandals, congressional earmarks for contractors, $100/barrel oil, election campaigns funded by corporate interests (need I go on?)….

And now comes a survey, from public-affairs polling firm Ipsos-Reid, showing that it’s not just a U.S. phenomenon but a global one. Important note: The firm polled 22,000 people in 22 countries — but they didn’t interview just any warm body. The respondents are what the firm calls the “Intelligaged,” people who are online, vote in elections, discuss politics, etc. (see methodology below).

The pollsters concluded that:

…a majority of the world’s most engaged citizens is letting it be known that large companies have too much influence on the decisions of their government and they want a more aggressive crackdown on the activities and influence of national and multinational corporations…

…public opinion among the most active, connected and engaged global citizens is putting global and national corporations at risk for potential government interventions and tighter regulatory incursions because its most elite citizens will back such moves.

Specifically, the Ipsos poll found that:

• Three quarters (74%) of the “intelligaged” citizens agree that large companies have “too much influence on the decisions” of their government. This was especially true in Latin America (83%) and North America (81%).
• A full majority (72%) of the “intelligaged” citizens believe that the government of their country “should be more aggressive in regulating the activities of national and multinational corporations.”

8 home remodeling trends for 2008

According to Case Handyman and Remodeling Services LLC, the nation’s largest full-service remodeling company, homeowners in 2008 will want to do the following:

• Transform attics into comfortable bedrooms, play areas and guest suites to gain more livable space.
• Install skylights and sun tubes to revitalize dark rooms, stairwells and closet spaces with natural light.
• Bring back the large, pedestal “soaking tub” in the master bath, for rejuvenation and unwinding after a long day.
• Build a whole, spacious walk-in closet suite, with high-end cabinets, mirrors, lighting, huge dressers and a center island.
• Use surprisingly realistic faux stone to enhance their home’s curb appeal.
• Convert space in the home into a comfortable yet highly functional home office, including custom cabinetry for storage, high-end audio/visual connections, task lighting and telecommunications equipment aimed at keeping the homeowner connected at all times.
• Seek out simple and easy ways to incorporate various aspects of “green living” into their daily lives. From energy-efficient appliances, low-VOC paint that improves air quality, recycled materials for resource conservation and environmentally-friendly cabinetry, the kitchen will serve as the perfect area to introduce green living in the home.
• Turn basements — formerly the dumping ground for excess and clutter — into home theaters, game rooms and wet bars.

Big Pharma faces big problems

“Over the next few years, the pharmaceutical business will hit a wall.” That’s how a major Wall Street Journal article begins (6 December 2007). The wall sits at the year 2012. The industry is “doomed, if we don’t change,” says Eli Lilly & Co. Chairman Sidney Taurel. The problems:

• Patent protections for the industry’s top-selling drugs will expire, allowing lower-priced generics to rush in. “Generic competition is expected wipe $67 billion from top companies’ annual U.S. sales between 2007 and 2012.”
• The industry’s science engine has stalled. “The century-old approach of finding chemicals to treat diseases is producing fewer and fewer drugs.” New blockbusters are lacking.

The industry is still profitable and will continue to produce new drugs — but “at too slow a rate to sustain its size and cost structure.”

That explains the recent spate of layoff announcements.

The future is said to be biotechnology (vs. chemicals) to develop drugs to treat diseases, which is why pharmaceutical companies are snapping up biotech companies and/or creating in-house biotech units. (They’re also getting into the generics business.)

By the way, this paradigm shift is bad news for chemists. See: “As Drug Industry Struggles, Chemists Face Layoff Wave,” The Wall Street Journal (11 December 2007).

Update: A new study says there are too many pharmaceutical sales reps taking up physicians’ time.

More wild cards

Following up on my recent discussion of wild cards — i.e., low-probability but high-impact developments in the future — here are five wild cards discussed in brief reports by Social Technologies LLC:

Recorded Lives: Lifelogging, the use of information technology to comprehensively record and archive a person’s experiences, could become a mainstream practice, due to declining hardware costs and rising consumer interest. Life recording would build on the trends witnessed in current blog, online photo album, and video journal Web sites. (Brief GL-2007-50) Additional research here and here.

Bye-Bye Bees: Colony collapse disorder (CCD) — the disappearance of honeybees from commercial hives — is alarming but probably temporary, most experts say. But what if CCD isn’t temporary? The long-term loss of honeybees could be calamitous for agriculture and the downstream businesses that depend on it. (Brief GL-2007-43)